Yield Trading

Educational Note: This is advanced yield speculation requiring substantial DeFi experience. Market timing and yield prediction are inherently uncertain. This information is educational only - not trading advice.

Overview

Yield trading is an advanced strategy for experienced players who profit from market inefficiencies in TON's developing DeFi ecosystem. Your returns come from identifying mispriced yield expectations rather than simply earning protocol yields.

Two Trading Directions

Short Yield (Expecting Lower Returns)

When to use: YT tokens are overpriced or Fixed APR rates are too high

Options:

  • Best: Sell YT tokens (if you own them) - most capital efficient

  • Alternative: Buy PT tokens - less efficient but achieves same directional bet

Example: Protocol points create hype, someone buys YT with high price impact, pushing Fixed APR to unsustainable levels. You buy PT at inflated rates, expecting actual yields to be lower.

Long Yield (Expecting Higher Returns)

When to use: YT tokens are underpriced or new incentives aren't priced in

Options:

  • Best: Sell PT tokens (if you own them)

  • Alternative: Buy YT tokens - up to 100x more capital efficient than PT

Example: New incentives go live that aren't priced in, or someone bought PT with huge price impact creating temporary inefficiency. You buy cheap YT expecting higher actual returns.

Capital Efficiency Advantage

YT tokens are more efficient for trading inefficiencies because they move pool balance with up to 100x implied leverage. If you're betting on yield direction, YT gives you maximum exposure with minimum capital.

When you don't have the optimal token:

  • YT overpriced but don't own any → Buy PT instead

  • PT overpriced but don't own any → Buy YT instead

Exotic Strategy: Mint and Trade

Create new PT and YT tokens through minting, then sell whichever token you think is overpriced. This allows you to enter either side of the trade even without existing positions, but you'll be left holding the other token on your balance. For example, if YT is overpriced, you mint YT+PT, sell the overpriced YT, and keep PT in your balance.


How to Identify Mispricing

Benchmark: Underlying APR

Natural comparison: Compare Fixed APR to current underlying protocol yield

  • Fixed APR > Underlying APR: Market expects higher future yields (YT priced high)

  • Fixed APR < Underlying APR: Market expects lower future yields (YT priced low)

Points Factor Creates Volatility

Why YT prices are usually higher: They allow points farming, creating speculation and volatility.

The challenge: While comparing yields from staking, lending, or trading fees is straightforward, estimating point values is extremely difficult due to:

  • Uncertain airdrop timelines

  • Unknown airdrop sizes and participant counts

  • Unpredictable project valuations

  • Multiple unknown factors

The opportunity: Markets with hyped points create significant speculation and arbitrage opportunities, but require substantial knowledge and experience.


Trading Execution Examples

Scenario 1: YT Overpriced

  • Situation: High points hype drives YT prices up, Fixed APR shows 20% vs 8% underlying

  • Trade: Sell YT (if owned) or Buy PT

  • Profit: When market realizes actual yields won't sustain 20%

Scenario 2: YT Underpriced

  • Situation: New reward program announced, market hasn't adjusted, Fixed APR at 5% vs 8% underlying + additional points drop

  • Trade: Buy YT or Sell PT

  • Profit: When market reprices to reflect new rewards

Risk Warning

This strategy involves active trading with potential for significant losses. Success requires:

  • Deep understanding of underlying protocols

  • Ability to estimate fair value of points and yields

  • Strong risk management skills

  • Comfort with potential total loss

Strategy Requirements

Essential skills:

  • Ability to analyze underlying protocol fundamentals

  • Understanding of points valuation methods

  • Experience with market timing and inefficiency identification

  • Risk management for directional bets

Market advantage: Since TON DeFi markets are new, many interesting opportunities will arise as the ecosystem develops.

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